Obama Leaves Afghan Options Open

The President addressed the nation last night and announced that the United States would maintain a presence in Afghanistan through 2024.  The ten year agreement with the Afghan government allows for the possibility of keeping US forces in Afghanistan beyond the previously announced 2014 withdrawal date.

Word of the announcement spread like wild fire.  Neo-cons took to the streets, firing their automatic assault weapons into the air in celebration.  Left wing liberals were seen running through the streets of Manhattan setting their hair on fire and sobbing in anguish.

Calm down! 

The only thing the President did yesterday was to keep his options open.

The President said that the current draw down of US troops would continue “And as our coalition agreed, by the end of 2014 the Afghans will be fully responsible for the security of their own government.” He then explained that the agreement that he signed with the Karzai government is designed to cover the decade after this planned withdrawal. 

The Associated Press reports that under the terms of the agreement, US forces would continue to be involved in counter-terrorism and training of the Afghan military.  In addition the US commits to supporting Afghan’s social and economic development, security, institutional operations and regional co-operation for 10 years, through 2024.  In return the Afghan government commits to strengthen government accountability, transparency and oversight, and to protect the rights of all Afghans, both men and women. The agreement commits the US to seek funding from Congress on an annual basis to support the Afghan Security Forces, as well as social and economic assistance.

More telling than what the agreement says is what the agreement doesn’t say.  How many troops will be left in country for the next decade and will these troop levels increase if the Karzai government fails to keep its end of the bargain?  How much will all this cost the American tax payer?  Our financially strapped country cannot continue to pay $2 billion dollars a week to support the Karzai government.    And what happens in 2024 if the Afghan government is still unable to maintain its own security?

We believe that the President wants to bring the combat troops home and return the security issues over to the Afghan government.  We also believe that the President wants to maintain a presence in the region in order to allow the military and the CIA to rapidly respond to events in Pakistan, Iraq, Syria and Iran should the need occur.  There is no question that among those “support forces” training and maintaining Afghan security will be a host of Seals and special ops forces who will continue to wage war against Al Qaeda and the Taliban.  The US will also continue to control Afghan air space.     

(For those keeping score at home…this is the very counter insurgency plan that Joe Biden recommended three years ago; the same Joe Biden that the President chose as a running mate for his foreign policy experience.  The President ignored his Vice President choosing instead to triple the number of combat troops in theater.  Perhaps the Vice President isn’t so dumb after all.  But we digress.)

The thing that we find most troubling about the agreement is that it ties us to the Karzai government for another decade.  With partners like that who needs enemies.  But you’ve got to dance with the one you brought to the party.

The President understands that there isn't a central front in the war against terror...least of all in Afghanistan.  He understands that Al Qaeda is scattered; and if there is any central control point for their operations it resides in Yemen.  But the President believes that a continued presence in Afghanistan is critical to our efforts in the Middle East.  While we would prefer that he bring all of our troops home and reduce our military footprint throughout the world; we will trust his judgement on this matter.   

We would remind the President’s critics that he has been pretty shrewd and nuanced in his foreign policy dealings.  He has a history of signaling that he is moving in one direction while in reality doing something quite different.  One need only to remember a that a year ago we watched the President crack jokes at the National Correspondence Dinner while knowing that the risky mission to eliminate bin Laden was underway…a mission whose failure would have all but ended his presidency.    The President has a pretty good poker face. 

For all his rhetoric the President knows that Afghanistan will look no different in 2024 than it does today.  The lack of specificity in this agreement leads us to believe that he has more up his sleeve than he is letting on.

One thing is certain.  Any conversation about this President being weak on foreign policy is now over.  If Republicans want to continue that debate they do so at their political peril.